Behind The By-election Results
Following the latest round of by-elections comes renewed speculation concerning the popularity of the major political parties ahead of general elections scheduled for 2021.
The Patriotic Front (PF) won the majority of the ward by-elections held on July 30th, including some in areas considered to be UPND strongholds. Of the 15 by-elections held on this occasion the PF won 10 and the United Party for National Development (UPND) won 5.
The results have prompted celebration and boosted the PF’s confidence ahead of next year’s polls. However, by-elections are not necessarily a good indicator of a party’s likely performance in nationwide polls or its genuine popularity for several reasons.
In the case of a by-election the ruling party is able to concentrate its vast resources in just a few areas. As the National Democratic Congress (NDC) Copperbelt Provincial Chairman George Sichula suggests, “These elections are not a good litmus paper for the PF. It is wrong for them to conclude that they are doing well and that 2021 will be a walkover… For instance, the PF has been spending very huge sums of money in almost every election. Just in Chienge, I saw more than ten 4×4 vehicles without number plates, queuing people up to give them bribes.”
As is often the case these by-elections have been accompanied by accusations that the votes were not fair, including in Katete Ward in Chiengi where the National Democratic Congress (NDC) alleged that there was massive vote buying at play. Earlier this year the by-election for Chilubi Island was a flashpoint for allegations and rumours concerning how the PF was looking to stop other parties from campaigning, including accusations that the party had hired the Chilubi ferry at Samfya Harbour for exclusive use during the campaign period.
History also contains some lessons for caution on the PF’s part. As Sichula notes, “Winning by-elections by the incumbent government is not new in Zambia, we saw it in the MMD between 2009 and 2010. That time everyone believed that MMD was popular and kept winning. It seems history is about to repeat itself.”
UPND National Chair Mutale Nalumango has noted the huge number of by-elections held during the PF’s time in government, claiming that this now exceeds the total number of elections between 1964 and 2011. Nalumango criticised the use of material handouts and political violence that often accompanies these elections, which she claims contributes to voter apathy and endangers Zambia’s reputation as a democracy.
Meanwhile, civil society activist Laura Miti described the recent by-elections as an “essential crime against citizens”, because they were “orchestrated, unnecessary and wildly expensive in a country both broke and indebted”, and “they, without doubt, served to recklessly spread COVID into rural areas that have broken health services.”